Bitcoin 12 May – 16 May 2025

As all of you are keen to know what happens with Bitcoin in the second half of May, here are the back-testing results for you of 3 x independent cycles belonging to 3 x independent planets. All 3 of them offer high probabilities of the second half of May producing GREEN weeks. Particularly Week closing around 23 – 24 May is confluenced by all 3 of them, that it will be closing higher than the price 7 days before. Please read my updates carefully and don’t assume that I have said something else than what I am actually saying as I gather from the questions and comments I receive. Did I just make a forecast that the last 2 weeks of May will close on GREEN? No. I simply said that the back-testing results are showing that and I am releasing them to those who don’t want to wait for the forecast for those weeks. I have not made a forecast about the last 2 weeks of May and this update is not about them either.

This forecast is about what happens between now and those dates as the back-testing results are not significant for the coming week. And it is a forecast, not just sharing back-testing results.

Venus in Aries cycle is forecasting 50/50 for the week closing on 14 May 2025 in relation to 7 May 2025.

Mars in Leo cycle is forecasting 50/50 for the week closing on 16 May 2025 in relation to 9 May 2025.

Mercury in Taurus cycle is forecasting 57% of Week 1 of Mercury in Taurus, i.e. 17 May 2025 closing higher than 10 May 2025.

Analysis:

Mars in Leo has closed every single week on GREEN only in one cycle: 2024. That is 13% probability that we can get the same in 2025. In the other 7 cycles, Mars in Leo has dumped as well. We already had 3 x GREEN weeks of Mars in Leo. And given that the cycle is forecast a high probability of 63% GREEN closure of week ending 23 May 2025, the only time Mars in Leo can dump is between now 11 May and 16 May or even a few days later than 16 May. This coming week is the only time Mars in Leo can dump to fulfil the historical pattern of dumping during its cycle on 87% of previous cycles.

See historically in which week Mars in Leo has produced the largest number of bottoms. 1 bottom in Week 2 and 2 bottoms in Week 4 = between 10 May – 16 May 2025 and 2 bottoms in Week 6. We’ll cover Week 6 nearer the time. For now we are interested in the coming week. Therefore my bias is a RED closure of Week 4. That is 16 May to close lower than 9 May.

This statement is contradicted by Mercury cycle which offers 57% historical probability of 17 May closing higher than 10 May. However 57% is a much less significant probability than the 87% that Mars will dump this coming week.

Does that mean that we are going straight down from here? No, because we don’t have a top. I am writing this on 11 May at 22:50 UTC. The red candle of today does not remotely resemble a top. That is quite a bullish statement by the chart actually. And it supports the idea of more up. We need to have a well defined top if we want a lot down. Mars in Leo is the boss trader. He is not going to allow traders who exited their long positions in the past couple of days to enter new longs. I’ll be very surprised if they make a visible HL to help traders open new longs. Psychologically the way to screw retail is maintain either sideways or make a shallow retracement and then head up again.

The fact that we don’t have a top as of today 11 May, means that whatever dumping is done between 11 May – 16 May is expected to be either shallow or it remains sideways or we get some kind of a spike bottom similar to 13 January 2025, when we were on a uptrend and just in one day we got a very deep bottom and then the uptrend resumed. And we have the 13% chance of Mars in Leo to continue the uptrend even in this coming week. The fractal that showed 11 May as a top is way more defined than the red candle we got today so I expect that fractal to get invalidated soon.

Have I changed my bias to bull bias for the monthly closure? I said I will decide on 12 – 13 May, but several of you keep asking me if I had changed it. Read my monthly email carefully. I clearly said I will decide on 12 – 13 if I’m changing my bias. If we get a spike down on 12 – 13 May, yes I will change my bias to bull immediately. If we get a healthy HL by 16 May, yes I will change my bias to bull as well. If Bitcoin continues up during the coming week, I will be researching like mad and will postpone making a decision about my bias. Because we have 87% historical probability of Mars in Leo dumping for at least one week of his residency in Leo. So if it’s not this coming week, it will have to be in the two week after that, which will again be very confusing because we have a lot of bull events happening then.

I have not officially made a forecast for the weeks after 16 May. Sharing back-testing results is not the equivalent of making a forecast. I will make that forecast after I see what happens in the coming week.