Bitcoin Week Ahead 17 – 24 May 2025

Update on 18 May 2025, 19:30 UTC.

The Jupiter Sextile to Chiron, which pumped Bitcoin today 18 May 2025, back-testing results show 67% historical probability of a retracement after today 18 May 2025 and 67% historical probability of PARABOLIC MOVES after, which I expect in this coming week.

I have 19 and 20 May as very strong days on other cycles so if retracement does happen it should be minimal. The Mercury Mars square that happened in the early hours of today 18 May, forecasts 73% UP moves immediately after the event. So it is very possible that we skip the retracement and go straight up.

A good confluence for the straight UP from here is 20 May makes a big anniversary of the Bitcoin ATH on 20 January 2025. It is exactly 120 days since the ATH which is a very bullish anniversary. That makes it highly possible that Bitcoin reaches the previous ATH by 20 May 2025.

If not – soon, as this whole week has some pretty strong days.

In terms of a TOP, I’m bullish all the way into June. So if there is a top this week, I expect it to be a local top. 19 – 20 May are good candidates for a local top. We’ll see how it goes. On Solar Eclipse cycle 25 May is a local top.

Another confluence for 20 May being a local top is the Venus Trine Mars aspect taking place on 22 May 2025.

The back-testing of this aspect gives us 65% historical probability that the Trend Before is a DOWN trend. 59% historical probability of a RED daily close and 65% historical probability of a DOWNTREND after the event.

65% is not 100% but they are strong probabilities.

We’ll see how it goes in the next couple of days. I will announce on X when I make the next update. You will find it here on the same blog for this week ahead.

Below this update is the Weekly TF forecast which I made yesterday.

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18 May is given as a RED closure by the historical cycle (the 1st column of the daily TFs forecast) which so far is running with the highest accuracy in May 2025. The Chinese cycle and the 2 Eclipse cycles are giving a GREEN closure but this month they have been largely inaccurate. We have an additional confluence for a RED closure given by the Mercury Mars square taking place on 18 May. 57% probability of closing on RED. It is a small probability by itself but it adds up in combination with the other cycles. 21 Lunar Day tends to dump. On the GREEN side we have Jupiter 60 Chiron.

And this new fractal of Ceres in Aries is indicating another RED for 18 May 2025. The newer the fractal = the most recent the cycle = the more likely to be accurate.

19 May – the backtesting results of Mercury Mars square give very high probability of 73% of the Trend After to be UP. That is confluenced with Mars in Leo Week 5 closing on GREEN 63% of the time ( = 17 May – 24 May 2025)

If you recall in the previous update I said I was not making a forecast for this week. That was because I needed more confluences and I got one more confluence from the Mercury Mars square back-testing results.

So on the grounds of those I am now making a well researched forecast that I expect the coming week ending on 24 May 2025 to close on GREEN.

As you can see the TA is very much against this forecast. That is why I am researching intensively and if I find something that contradicts the above forecast I will let you know. In fact Ceres in Aries contradicts it but I want to give it a chance to see if it is accurate for the next couple of days and if it is, then I will give you the full fractal of this current cycle.

May 2025 monthly TF: I have more evidence now to be able to say that I am changing my bias to a GREEN closure of May 2025.